For OPEC to be a reliable steward of oil supply and its flex – it must be responsive to world events and react in a manner that communicates its actions and intended actions clearly to consuming nations.
Thursday's announcement of a 60 million-barrel release from emergency stocks -- only the third in the IEA's 37-year history -- came after consumer nations unsuccessfully applied pressure on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to increase its output at a meeting this month.
The talks collapsed in disarray, but top exporter Saudi Arabia said it would still produce as much oil as the market needed.
As far as OPEC delegates were concerned, there was no justification for any action from the IEA.
OPEC delegates from the Gulf, which has traditionally sided with the U.S. and favored moderate prices, said it was unnecessary, unjustified interference.
"The oil price hasn't shot up to $150. There is no reason to do this. The market is not short of supply. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have been raising production, but there have not been many buyers. The IEA is just playing politics with the U.S.," one Gulf delegate told Reuters.
OPEC has yet to issue an official statement, but speaking at Reuters Global Climate and Energy Summit last week, OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri accused the IEA of being unprofessional.
"Strategic reserves should be kept for their purpose and not used as a weapon against OPEC," Badri told Reuters.
Badri's words recall OPEC's use of its "oil weapon" during the Arab Oil Embargo, which led to the creation of the IEA in 1974 to protect consumers' interests.
A more harmonious chapter began with the formal beginning of producer-consumer dialogue through the International Energy Forum in 1991.
Since then, OPEC-IEA dialogue has been happiest when oil prices were high enough to reward oil producers, but not so high as to alarm consumers.
In June this year, OPEC failed to get as far as a new production agreement. Iran, holder of the rotating OPEC presidency, was joined by six other nations in refusing to add more oil to the market.
They refused even though data from the OPEC headquarters in Vienna agreed there could be an oil shortage later in the year.
Saudi Arabia, which holds almost all available spare production capacity, is expected nevertheless to raise its output toward 10 million barrels per day (bpd) in June and July.
Could this be the Kings club trying to discipline Western Democracies into submission and we’re foiling their plans by using a reserve to dampen price spikes while the EU is dealing with a debt work-out and the US is trying to ignite its economy?
In all likelihood OPEC is trying to influence the US Presidential election. Not happy at the democratic initiatives of Middle Eastern citizens who have been supported overtly or tacitly by the West, OPEC is trying to drive up energy prices to crisis levels to prevent a second term Obama administration.
Perhaps flooding the market with petroleum and bring down to $50 bbl for a period of time would bring producers in line with the democratic reforms their consumers demand and citizens bleed for.
Investment play: conagra
Social Justice: Current Affairs, Business, Politics, and all the reasons in the world to Thrive on Creative Discontent!
Thursday, June 23, 2011
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
To big to not have one
What isn't made in China? My car. Many of the parts are but not the branded car itself. That cannot last for too long.
A Chinese automaker could rise up from the nation's fragmented industry to emerge as a global competitor within the next five years through an acquisition of an established automaker, Nissan Motor (7201.T) Chief Executive Carlos Ghosn said on Wednesday.
Ghosn, who was speaking at the Thomson Reuters Newsmaker event in Tokyo, said Nissan expected one or two Chinese automakers to emerge as a "global champion" for Beijing's aspirations for a labor-intensive industry that governments around the world have taken steps to develop and protect.
"The Chinese government says this is a huge industry. We want to have a Chinese champion," Ghosn said. "It's normal. It's logical. We were expecting this."
China's auto sector, now the world's largest by sales volume, is also replacing the United States as the most profitable market for automakers, he said.
China's government requires foreign automakers to tie up with local manufacturers in joint ventures. It has encouraged other steps to foster local auto brands being rolled out by state-run SAIC Motor Corp (600104.SS) and others.
Foreign automakers led by General Motors Co (GM.N) and Volkswagen AG (VOWG_p.DE) remain the top sellers in China but dozens of Chinese automakers also have a presence and strong backing from provincial governments.
Ghosn said he expected it would take at least five years for a Chinese automaker to emerge as a competitor in major markets outside China for the likes of Nissan and Renault SA (RENA.PA), which he also heads.
But an acquisition of a mass-market auto brand by a Chinese manufacturer could shorten that timeframe, he said.
China's Geely bought the Volvo brand from Ford Motor Co (F.N) in 2010, and Ghosn said a larger deal along the same lines was possible.
GM's Opel unit has been seen as a potential partner for a Chinese automaker. GM negotiated and then scrapped a planned sale of Opel to Canada's Magna International Inc (MG.TO) in 2009 and bankers expect GM Chief Executive Dan Akerson to be open to consideration of some alternative deal.
Prediction look at the leaders in electric, and hybrid cars to think you might be the next acquisition target or JV.
Investment plays: GM, Toyota, Ford, Nissan
A Chinese automaker could rise up from the nation's fragmented industry to emerge as a global competitor within the next five years through an acquisition of an established automaker, Nissan Motor (7201.T) Chief Executive Carlos Ghosn said on Wednesday.
Ghosn, who was speaking at the Thomson Reuters Newsmaker event in Tokyo, said Nissan expected one or two Chinese automakers to emerge as a "global champion" for Beijing's aspirations for a labor-intensive industry that governments around the world have taken steps to develop and protect.
"The Chinese government says this is a huge industry. We want to have a Chinese champion," Ghosn said. "It's normal. It's logical. We were expecting this."
China's auto sector, now the world's largest by sales volume, is also replacing the United States as the most profitable market for automakers, he said.
China's government requires foreign automakers to tie up with local manufacturers in joint ventures. It has encouraged other steps to foster local auto brands being rolled out by state-run SAIC Motor Corp (600104.SS) and others.
Foreign automakers led by General Motors Co (GM.N) and Volkswagen AG (VOWG_p.DE) remain the top sellers in China but dozens of Chinese automakers also have a presence and strong backing from provincial governments.
Ghosn said he expected it would take at least five years for a Chinese automaker to emerge as a competitor in major markets outside China for the likes of Nissan and Renault SA (RENA.PA), which he also heads.
But an acquisition of a mass-market auto brand by a Chinese manufacturer could shorten that timeframe, he said.
China's Geely bought the Volvo brand from Ford Motor Co (F.N) in 2010, and Ghosn said a larger deal along the same lines was possible.
GM's Opel unit has been seen as a potential partner for a Chinese automaker. GM negotiated and then scrapped a planned sale of Opel to Canada's Magna International Inc (MG.TO) in 2009 and bankers expect GM Chief Executive Dan Akerson to be open to consideration of some alternative deal.
Prediction look at the leaders in electric, and hybrid cars to think you might be the next acquisition target or JV.
Investment plays: GM, Toyota, Ford, Nissan
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
To go beyond is as wrong as to fall short...
Shale gas is the most important major new source of energy on the planet, as well as the most important development in the petroleum economy since deep water drilling. Ten years ago, shale gas was just 1% of American natural-gas supplies. Today, it is about 25% and could rise to 50% within two decades. Estimates are that US has more than a 100-year supply of natural gas, thanks to the development of shale gas. Natural gas is used for everything from home heating and cooking to electric generation, industrial processes and petrochemical feedstocks.
Beneath China’s surface also lies shale gas, most likely quite a lot of it. According to information released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in April, China has 1,275 tcf of technically recoverable shale gas resources, nearly 50% more than the US. Those estimated recoverable reserves are more than one thousand times the amount of natural gas used in China in 2010.
PetroChina and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) bought stakes in North American shale drillers like Chesapeake Energy and EnCana with the intent of acquiring technology and ramping up production at home. But, it is not certain, to say the least, that this strategy will pay off — becoming a small shareholder is not the same as buying a right to that company’s technology and expertise.
Yet, PetroChina Co., Asia’s largest oil producer, yesterday walked away from what would have been its largest deal this year, a C$5.4 billion ($5.5 billion) purchase that would have given the Chinese company a 50 percent stake in about 1 trillion cubic feet of Canadian natural gas.
PetroChina and Encana Corp. (ECA) failed to agree on a joint operating agreement, said Alan Boras, an Encana spokesman. Chinese companies won’t buy what they view as overpriced assets, said John Stephenson, a senior portfolio manager at First Asset Investment Inc. in Toronto.
Chinese energy companies looking for targets abroad have plenty of options to choose from in Canada and the U.S. Producers EOG Resources Inc. (EOG) and Venoco Inc. are among companies looking for partners to help fund shale-gas production, Raymond Deacon and Stephen Berman, analysts at Pritchard Capital Partners LLC, said in an April 17 note to clients.
The collapse of the Encana-PetroChina agreement is the second failed Canadian transaction by a Chinese company since April, when a hostile bid by China’s Minmetals Resources Ltd. for copper producer Equinox Minerals Ltd. was topped by a C$7.32 billion offer from Barrick Gold Corp.
Other Asian companies have entered the Canadian gas market. Encana in 2010 reached a $1.1 billion agreement to sell stakes in three gas fields to state-run Korea Gas Corp. Petroliam Nasional Bhd, Malaysia’s state-owned oil company, said on June 2 it would spend as much as C$1.07 billion for stakes in Progress Energy Resources Corp. (PRQ)’s fields.
Encana, Canada’s largest natural-gas producer, faces the prospect of slower growth unless it finds a partner to help develop millions of cubic feet of shale reserves. The cancellation of the PetroChina deal is “negative for Encana’s credit profile,” wrote Moody’s Investors Service yesterday in a note to clients. Moody’s said the partnership would have helped the Calgary-based company’s liquidity and “ability to fund negative free cash flow.”
Encana said joint venture talks with potential investors are “well under way” for other projects, including the Horn River shale and Greater Sierra field. The company expects to receive $1 billion to $2 billion in revenue from asset sales, up from a previous forecast of $500 million to $1 billion, according to the statement yesterday.
Investment ideas: Encana, EOG, & PRQ
China Inc limited opening of the shale gas in China could attract the best practices you seek.
Beneath China’s surface also lies shale gas, most likely quite a lot of it. According to information released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in April, China has 1,275 tcf of technically recoverable shale gas resources, nearly 50% more than the US. Those estimated recoverable reserves are more than one thousand times the amount of natural gas used in China in 2010.
PetroChina and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) bought stakes in North American shale drillers like Chesapeake Energy and EnCana with the intent of acquiring technology and ramping up production at home. But, it is not certain, to say the least, that this strategy will pay off — becoming a small shareholder is not the same as buying a right to that company’s technology and expertise.
Yet, PetroChina Co., Asia’s largest oil producer, yesterday walked away from what would have been its largest deal this year, a C$5.4 billion ($5.5 billion) purchase that would have given the Chinese company a 50 percent stake in about 1 trillion cubic feet of Canadian natural gas.
PetroChina and Encana Corp. (ECA) failed to agree on a joint operating agreement, said Alan Boras, an Encana spokesman. Chinese companies won’t buy what they view as overpriced assets, said John Stephenson, a senior portfolio manager at First Asset Investment Inc. in Toronto.
Chinese energy companies looking for targets abroad have plenty of options to choose from in Canada and the U.S. Producers EOG Resources Inc. (EOG) and Venoco Inc. are among companies looking for partners to help fund shale-gas production, Raymond Deacon and Stephen Berman, analysts at Pritchard Capital Partners LLC, said in an April 17 note to clients.
The collapse of the Encana-PetroChina agreement is the second failed Canadian transaction by a Chinese company since April, when a hostile bid by China’s Minmetals Resources Ltd. for copper producer Equinox Minerals Ltd. was topped by a C$7.32 billion offer from Barrick Gold Corp.
Other Asian companies have entered the Canadian gas market. Encana in 2010 reached a $1.1 billion agreement to sell stakes in three gas fields to state-run Korea Gas Corp. Petroliam Nasional Bhd, Malaysia’s state-owned oil company, said on June 2 it would spend as much as C$1.07 billion for stakes in Progress Energy Resources Corp. (PRQ)’s fields.
Encana, Canada’s largest natural-gas producer, faces the prospect of slower growth unless it finds a partner to help develop millions of cubic feet of shale reserves. The cancellation of the PetroChina deal is “negative for Encana’s credit profile,” wrote Moody’s Investors Service yesterday in a note to clients. Moody’s said the partnership would have helped the Calgary-based company’s liquidity and “ability to fund negative free cash flow.”
Encana said joint venture talks with potential investors are “well under way” for other projects, including the Horn River shale and Greater Sierra field. The company expects to receive $1 billion to $2 billion in revenue from asset sales, up from a previous forecast of $500 million to $1 billion, according to the statement yesterday.
Investment ideas: Encana, EOG, & PRQ
China Inc limited opening of the shale gas in China could attract the best practices you seek.
Monday, June 20, 2011
Be Careful what you wish for, you just might get it!
The case is American Electric Power Co. v. Connecticut, 10-174.
The Supreme Court unanimously ruled on a federal lawsuit Monday by states and conservation groups trying to force cuts in greenhouse gas emissions from power plants.
Eight states initiated this novel approach. They argued that under traditional common law, power plants were creating a public nuisance, and that state governments had the power to intervene. Eight states were originally involved: California, Connecticut, Iowa, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island and Wisconsin. When Republican governors took over in New Jersey and Wisconsin, those states withdrew from the case.
The court said that the authority to seek reductions in emissions rests with the Environmental Protection Agency, not the courts.
EPA said that it will issue new regulations by May 2012 to reduce power plants' emissions of carbon dioxide, the chief greenhouse gas. The Obama administration has already started controlling heat-trapping pollution from automobiles and from some of the largest, and most polluting, industrial plants.
Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, writing for the court, said the Clean Air Act gives the EPA authority to regulate carbon-dioxide emissions from power plants.
The landmark environmental law leaves no room for what Ginsburg described as a parallel track, "control of greenhouse gas emissions by federal judges."
On the other hand, Ginsburg said, that the states and conservation groups can go to federal court under the Clean Air Act if they object to EPA's eventual decision.
The private defendants in the suit are American Electric Power Co. of Ohio, Cinergy Co., now part of Duke Energy Corp. of North Carolina; Southern Co. Inc. of Georgia, and Xcel Energy Inc. of Minnesota. Five of the biggest greenhouse gas emitters in America. Four of them are part of the Edison Electric Institute, a major industry group.
If the EPA puts forward a national cap & trade regime – much like say Europe; then you have some good shorts on your investment list above. If they don’t, you are still likely to see stiffer state regulations on emissions and that can go to point of origin – simple meaning -- a dirty coal plant in Utah cannot sell power in California without being penalized.
In any event we can all wheeze, cough, and tear while sucking in some more dirty air.
The Supreme Court unanimously ruled on a federal lawsuit Monday by states and conservation groups trying to force cuts in greenhouse gas emissions from power plants.
Eight states initiated this novel approach. They argued that under traditional common law, power plants were creating a public nuisance, and that state governments had the power to intervene. Eight states were originally involved: California, Connecticut, Iowa, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island and Wisconsin. When Republican governors took over in New Jersey and Wisconsin, those states withdrew from the case.
The court said that the authority to seek reductions in emissions rests with the Environmental Protection Agency, not the courts.
EPA said that it will issue new regulations by May 2012 to reduce power plants' emissions of carbon dioxide, the chief greenhouse gas. The Obama administration has already started controlling heat-trapping pollution from automobiles and from some of the largest, and most polluting, industrial plants.
Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, writing for the court, said the Clean Air Act gives the EPA authority to regulate carbon-dioxide emissions from power plants.
The landmark environmental law leaves no room for what Ginsburg described as a parallel track, "control of greenhouse gas emissions by federal judges."
On the other hand, Ginsburg said, that the states and conservation groups can go to federal court under the Clean Air Act if they object to EPA's eventual decision.
The private defendants in the suit are American Electric Power Co. of Ohio, Cinergy Co., now part of Duke Energy Corp. of North Carolina; Southern Co. Inc. of Georgia, and Xcel Energy Inc. of Minnesota. Five of the biggest greenhouse gas emitters in America. Four of them are part of the Edison Electric Institute, a major industry group.
If the EPA puts forward a national cap & trade regime – much like say Europe; then you have some good shorts on your investment list above. If they don’t, you are still likely to see stiffer state regulations on emissions and that can go to point of origin – simple meaning -- a dirty coal plant in Utah cannot sell power in California without being penalized.
In any event we can all wheeze, cough, and tear while sucking in some more dirty air.
Sunday, June 19, 2011
137,916,660,000 gallons gasoline (US demand p.a.) / 2 (hybrid mileage efficiency) saves the USA $276 billion!!!
Or think of it this way, we switch to hybrid and electric vehicles for both passenger and commercial vehicles and we take at least $170 billion (60% of US gasoline comes from tyrants) out of the hands of dictators and terrorists. How’s that for a Homeland Defense strategy?
Consumer interest in alternative-fuel vehicles has grown this year as gasoline neared $4 a gallon. U.S. drivers bought about 275,000 gasoline-electric hybrids last year, led by Toyota’s Prius, and GM and Nissan Motor Co. are boosting sales of rechargeable Volt and Leaf vehicles. Electric vehicles can plug directly into wall outlets.
USA Hydrogen Cars go by way of the Hindenburg, Chu on this
Energy Secretary Steven Chu, whose mandate includes getting more fuel-efficient cars on U.S. roads, is disregarding advisers in his own department and seeking to cut almost half the federal funding for hydrogen-powered autos.
Chu, 63, has advocated battery cars and biofuels as options more likely to meet U.S. energy and environmental goals in the near term. Discounting hydrogen means the U.S. risks falling behind Japan, Germany and South Korea in the technology because those nations are moving ahead with plans for extensive fuel- station networks to serve buyers of the cars.
“Fuel-cell technology is viable and ready for the mass market,” Chris Hostetter, Toyota’s U.S. group vice president for advanced planning, said in a May 10 interview at the opening of a hydrogen filling station in Torrance, California. “Building an extensive hydrogen refueling infrastructure is the critical next step in bringing these products to market.”
Toyota, Honda, GM, Daimler and Hyundai Motor Co. (005380) all say the hydrogen tanks on fuel-cell vehicles they’re testing in California and elsewhere provide the same range of 250 miles (402 kilometers) to 400 miles as gasoline autos.
Vehicles powered by hydrogen made from natural gas produce at least 50 percent fewer carbon emissions than the cleanest gasoline autos, according to Energy Department estimates. The U.S. has 58 hydrogen fueling stations, according to the Energy Department.
In 2009, Germany announced plans for 1,000 hydrogen stations. In January, Japan said it will have 100 hydrogen stations in place by 2015, and South Korea may have 50 by the end of next year and more than 100 by the end of the decade.
Making hydrogen from natural gas costs $1.36 to $1.81 per pound, or the equivalent of a gallon of gasoline, and fuel-cell vehicles are twice as efficient as gasoline autos.
Air Products & Chemicals Inc. (APD), the second-biggest U.S. industrial-gas producer, estimates it can sell hydrogen from natural gas for about $2.27 per pound, Ed Kiczek, the company’s senior business development manager, said in an interview. The company, based in Allentown, Pennsylvania, plans to install hydrogen fuel pumps at 10 or more Southern California gasoline stations in the next two years, he said.
California expects automakers to sell at least 53,000 hydrogen vehicles in the state to comply with emissions rules in 2015 through 2017.
Green Autos will command the highways
The newly released J.D. Power and Associates 2011 US Green Automotive Study indicates major growth in consumer interest in green cars—including hybrids, clean diesel, plug-in hybrids and pure electric cars. The market research firm expects as much as 10 percent of sales to come from vehicles with these fuel-efficient technologies by 2016. That would represent a four-fold increase in the sales numbers for green cars compared to 2010.
Carmakers appear ready to supply the growing demand. By the end of 2016, J.D. Power and Associates expects there will be 159 hybrid and electric vehicle models available for purchase in the US market—a significant increase from 31 hybrid and electric models in 2009.
According to the Department of Energy, hybrid vehicles get 40 to 70 miles per gallon, which is much higher than the mileage offered by standard gasoline-powered cars. High mileage means fewer emissions, which can reduce the impact of transportation on the environment.
According to the University of California Berkeley, hybrid vehicles produce 90 percent fewer tailpipe emissions than standard gasoline-powered cars.
References
• US Department of Energy: Hybrid Electric Vehicle Benefits
• University of California Berkeley: Hybrid Vehicles
• Energy Information Administration: Long-Term World Oil Supply Scenarios
Investment ideas ADP, Toyota, Honda, Ford, Hyundai, GM & Nissan
Consumer interest in alternative-fuel vehicles has grown this year as gasoline neared $4 a gallon. U.S. drivers bought about 275,000 gasoline-electric hybrids last year, led by Toyota’s Prius, and GM and Nissan Motor Co. are boosting sales of rechargeable Volt and Leaf vehicles. Electric vehicles can plug directly into wall outlets.
USA Hydrogen Cars go by way of the Hindenburg, Chu on this
Energy Secretary Steven Chu, whose mandate includes getting more fuel-efficient cars on U.S. roads, is disregarding advisers in his own department and seeking to cut almost half the federal funding for hydrogen-powered autos.
- Funny how the government can digest a 100% cost overrun for predator drones (total tax payer cost $12.3 bln) but we cannot keep a budget for hydrogen vehicles!
Chu, 63, has advocated battery cars and biofuels as options more likely to meet U.S. energy and environmental goals in the near term. Discounting hydrogen means the U.S. risks falling behind Japan, Germany and South Korea in the technology because those nations are moving ahead with plans for extensive fuel- station networks to serve buyers of the cars.
“Fuel-cell technology is viable and ready for the mass market,” Chris Hostetter, Toyota’s U.S. group vice president for advanced planning, said in a May 10 interview at the opening of a hydrogen filling station in Torrance, California. “Building an extensive hydrogen refueling infrastructure is the critical next step in bringing these products to market.”
Toyota, Honda, GM, Daimler and Hyundai Motor Co. (005380) all say the hydrogen tanks on fuel-cell vehicles they’re testing in California and elsewhere provide the same range of 250 miles (402 kilometers) to 400 miles as gasoline autos.
Vehicles powered by hydrogen made from natural gas produce at least 50 percent fewer carbon emissions than the cleanest gasoline autos, according to Energy Department estimates. The U.S. has 58 hydrogen fueling stations, according to the Energy Department.
In 2009, Germany announced plans for 1,000 hydrogen stations. In January, Japan said it will have 100 hydrogen stations in place by 2015, and South Korea may have 50 by the end of next year and more than 100 by the end of the decade.
Making hydrogen from natural gas costs $1.36 to $1.81 per pound, or the equivalent of a gallon of gasoline, and fuel-cell vehicles are twice as efficient as gasoline autos.
Air Products & Chemicals Inc. (APD), the second-biggest U.S. industrial-gas producer, estimates it can sell hydrogen from natural gas for about $2.27 per pound, Ed Kiczek, the company’s senior business development manager, said in an interview. The company, based in Allentown, Pennsylvania, plans to install hydrogen fuel pumps at 10 or more Southern California gasoline stations in the next two years, he said.
California expects automakers to sell at least 53,000 hydrogen vehicles in the state to comply with emissions rules in 2015 through 2017.
Green Autos will command the highways
The newly released J.D. Power and Associates 2011 US Green Automotive Study indicates major growth in consumer interest in green cars—including hybrids, clean diesel, plug-in hybrids and pure electric cars. The market research firm expects as much as 10 percent of sales to come from vehicles with these fuel-efficient technologies by 2016. That would represent a four-fold increase in the sales numbers for green cars compared to 2010.
Carmakers appear ready to supply the growing demand. By the end of 2016, J.D. Power and Associates expects there will be 159 hybrid and electric vehicle models available for purchase in the US market—a significant increase from 31 hybrid and electric models in 2009.
According to the Department of Energy, hybrid vehicles get 40 to 70 miles per gallon, which is much higher than the mileage offered by standard gasoline-powered cars. High mileage means fewer emissions, which can reduce the impact of transportation on the environment.
According to the University of California Berkeley, hybrid vehicles produce 90 percent fewer tailpipe emissions than standard gasoline-powered cars.
References
• US Department of Energy: Hybrid Electric Vehicle Benefits
• University of California Berkeley: Hybrid Vehicles
• Energy Information Administration: Long-Term World Oil Supply Scenarios
Investment ideas ADP, Toyota, Honda, Ford, Hyundai, GM & Nissan
Justice, Law & Liberty
There is indeed, no uglier kind of state than one in which the richest men are thought to be the best, Marcus Tullius Cicero born 106 B.C.
If you read only two books, then let them be Cicero’s The Laws and The Republic.
In these two books, Cicero wanted to restore the republic to its uncorrupted and truest form. He intended to persuade good and honorable men to participate actively in public affairs. Politics, he argued, was the most honorable of all professions. His ideas were not new. He relied on Greek and Roman writings.
In The Laws, Cicero explored his concept of natural law. "Law is the highest reason," he wrote, "implanted in Nature, which commands what ought to be done and forbids the opposite." Thus, natural law is the guide for right and wrong in human affairs.
Without laws, Cicero reasoned, there can be no state or government. More important, he continued, there must be equality under the law with no special exceptions. This is essential, he said, for justice, which in turn is necessary for a successfully functioning government.
In The Republic, Cicero argued that laws are not enough for a just state. There also must be liberty. "But if liberty is not equally enjoyed by all the citizens," he declared, "it is not liberty at all." Therefore, liberty cannot exist unless "the people have the supreme power" in government.
Cicero looked into the ideal form of government for upholding natural law, establishing justice, and ensuring liberty. He started by examining three "good states" and their perverted forms, described earlier by the Greek historian Polybius.
Cicero believed the best of the good states was a monarchy, but the king could turn into a tyrant. Cicero also approved of an aristocracy, rule by the best men, but it was vulnerable to conspiracies by factions intent on grabbing power (an oligarchy). In Cicero's view, the worst of the good states was a democracy, where all the people participated directly in running the government. It eventually led to mob rule.
Cicero went a step further than Polybius to describe a cycle of government forms. "The government is thus bandied about like a ball," Cicero wrote, "tyrants receive it from kings; from tyrants it passes either to aristocrats or to the people; and from the people to oligarchs or tyrants." Therefore, he concluded that all three good states were flawed and unstable.
Even so, Cicero recognized each good state had its merits. A king could act quickly and decisively in an emergency. The people in a democracy enjoyed liberty with equal rights. The aristocrats possessed experience and wisdom.
Cicero proposed that the ideal government "is formed by an equal balancing and blending" of monarchy, democracy, and aristocracy. In this "mixed state," he argued, royalty, the best men, and the common people all should have a role.
Unlike many of the political philosophers before him, Cicero was an experienced politician and had a working model for his "mixed state." This was the Roman Republic, with its consuls (co-kings), Senate (aristocrats), and democratic assemblies (commoners).
To achieve his ideal government, Cicero argued that Romans only had to restore the republic to its previous perfect form. He proposed strengthening the aristocratic consuls and Senate at the expense of the democratic assemblies. But Cicero's reforms did little to address the mounting forces endangering the existence of the republic.
The greatest threat facing the Roman Republic was ambitious military men, especially the Triumvirate. When Crassus died in a disastrous war in the eastern empire, Pompey and Caesar each plotted to become master of Rome, and civil war erupted that led to the Fall of the Republic.
Let Cicero’s words echo throughout our planet:
On Justice
Justice is the crowning glory of the virtues.
Justice consists in doing no injury to men…
Justice is the set and constant purpose which gives every man his due.
The foundations of justice are that no one should suffer wrong; then, that the public good be promoted.
…justice must be observed even to the lowest.
Justice does not descend from its pinnacle.
Justice extorts no reward, no kind of price; she is sought…for her own sake.
Extreme justice is extreme injustice.
If our lives are endangered by plots or violence…any and every method of protecting ourselves is morally right.
On Law
True law is right reason in agreement with nature; it is of universal application…
The welfare of the people is the ultimate law.
The precepts of the law are these: to live honestly, to injure no one, and to give everyone else his due.
According to the law of nature it is only fair that no one should become richer through damages and injuries suffered by another.
The strictest law often causes the most serious wrong.
The more laws, the less justice.
…the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled…
The administration of government, like a guardianship, ought to be directed to the good of those who confer, not of those who receive the trust.
When a government becomes powerful…it is an usurper which takes bread from innocent mouths and deprives honorable men of their substance for votes with which to perpetuate itself.
On Liberty
We are in bondage to the law so that we might be free.
The essence of liberty is to live as you choose.
Freedom is a man’s natural power of doing what he pleases, so far as he is not prevented by force or law.
Freedom is a possession of inestimable value.
What is so beneficial to the people as liberty…to be preferred to all things.
Liberty is rendered even more precious by the recollection of servitude.
Freedom suppressed again, and again regained, bites with keener fangs than freedom never endangered.
Only in states in which the power of the people is supreme has liberty any abode.
Peace is liberty in tranquility. Servitude is the worst of all evils, to be resisted not only by war, but even by death.
Cicero was among the most important influences behind the American Revolution. He was a symbol of dedication in opposing tyranny, and his ideas on justice, law and liberty are represented in our founding documents.
To the dissidents of the world -- those who call for Justice, Laws & Liberty; let the words of Cicero forge your steel during the unendurable times ahead: “the best men and women are especially motivated by glory.” You all deserve a representative form of government that you choose and that is not thrust upon you.
To my fellow Americans, let us not let slip what took 2,000 years to re-create.
If you read only two books, then let them be Cicero’s The Laws and The Republic.
In these two books, Cicero wanted to restore the republic to its uncorrupted and truest form. He intended to persuade good and honorable men to participate actively in public affairs. Politics, he argued, was the most honorable of all professions. His ideas were not new. He relied on Greek and Roman writings.
In The Laws, Cicero explored his concept of natural law. "Law is the highest reason," he wrote, "implanted in Nature, which commands what ought to be done and forbids the opposite." Thus, natural law is the guide for right and wrong in human affairs.
Without laws, Cicero reasoned, there can be no state or government. More important, he continued, there must be equality under the law with no special exceptions. This is essential, he said, for justice, which in turn is necessary for a successfully functioning government.
In The Republic, Cicero argued that laws are not enough for a just state. There also must be liberty. "But if liberty is not equally enjoyed by all the citizens," he declared, "it is not liberty at all." Therefore, liberty cannot exist unless "the people have the supreme power" in government.
Cicero looked into the ideal form of government for upholding natural law, establishing justice, and ensuring liberty. He started by examining three "good states" and their perverted forms, described earlier by the Greek historian Polybius.
Cicero believed the best of the good states was a monarchy, but the king could turn into a tyrant. Cicero also approved of an aristocracy, rule by the best men, but it was vulnerable to conspiracies by factions intent on grabbing power (an oligarchy). In Cicero's view, the worst of the good states was a democracy, where all the people participated directly in running the government. It eventually led to mob rule.
Cicero went a step further than Polybius to describe a cycle of government forms. "The government is thus bandied about like a ball," Cicero wrote, "tyrants receive it from kings; from tyrants it passes either to aristocrats or to the people; and from the people to oligarchs or tyrants." Therefore, he concluded that all three good states were flawed and unstable.
Even so, Cicero recognized each good state had its merits. A king could act quickly and decisively in an emergency. The people in a democracy enjoyed liberty with equal rights. The aristocrats possessed experience and wisdom.
Cicero proposed that the ideal government "is formed by an equal balancing and blending" of monarchy, democracy, and aristocracy. In this "mixed state," he argued, royalty, the best men, and the common people all should have a role.
Unlike many of the political philosophers before him, Cicero was an experienced politician and had a working model for his "mixed state." This was the Roman Republic, with its consuls (co-kings), Senate (aristocrats), and democratic assemblies (commoners).
To achieve his ideal government, Cicero argued that Romans only had to restore the republic to its previous perfect form. He proposed strengthening the aristocratic consuls and Senate at the expense of the democratic assemblies. But Cicero's reforms did little to address the mounting forces endangering the existence of the republic.
The greatest threat facing the Roman Republic was ambitious military men, especially the Triumvirate. When Crassus died in a disastrous war in the eastern empire, Pompey and Caesar each plotted to become master of Rome, and civil war erupted that led to the Fall of the Republic.
Let Cicero’s words echo throughout our planet:
On Justice
Justice is the crowning glory of the virtues.
Justice consists in doing no injury to men…
Justice is the set and constant purpose which gives every man his due.
The foundations of justice are that no one should suffer wrong; then, that the public good be promoted.
…justice must be observed even to the lowest.
Justice does not descend from its pinnacle.
Justice extorts no reward, no kind of price; she is sought…for her own sake.
Extreme justice is extreme injustice.
If our lives are endangered by plots or violence…any and every method of protecting ourselves is morally right.
On Law
True law is right reason in agreement with nature; it is of universal application…
The welfare of the people is the ultimate law.
The precepts of the law are these: to live honestly, to injure no one, and to give everyone else his due.
According to the law of nature it is only fair that no one should become richer through damages and injuries suffered by another.
The strictest law often causes the most serious wrong.
The more laws, the less justice.
…the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled…
The administration of government, like a guardianship, ought to be directed to the good of those who confer, not of those who receive the trust.
When a government becomes powerful…it is an usurper which takes bread from innocent mouths and deprives honorable men of their substance for votes with which to perpetuate itself.
On Liberty
We are in bondage to the law so that we might be free.
The essence of liberty is to live as you choose.
Freedom is a man’s natural power of doing what he pleases, so far as he is not prevented by force or law.
Freedom is a possession of inestimable value.
What is so beneficial to the people as liberty…to be preferred to all things.
Liberty is rendered even more precious by the recollection of servitude.
Freedom suppressed again, and again regained, bites with keener fangs than freedom never endangered.
Only in states in which the power of the people is supreme has liberty any abode.
Peace is liberty in tranquility. Servitude is the worst of all evils, to be resisted not only by war, but even by death.
Cicero was among the most important influences behind the American Revolution. He was a symbol of dedication in opposing tyranny, and his ideas on justice, law and liberty are represented in our founding documents.
To the dissidents of the world -- those who call for Justice, Laws & Liberty; let the words of Cicero forge your steel during the unendurable times ahead: “the best men and women are especially motivated by glory.” You all deserve a representative form of government that you choose and that is not thrust upon you.
To my fellow Americans, let us not let slip what took 2,000 years to re-create.
Saturday, June 18, 2011
Let the Sun Shine in for Solar Cities, let’s get FIT!
Solar companies are warning about the potential for a significant hit to demand for solar and falling prices due to Europe government subsidy cuts. It is unlikely that growing demand from other countries and markets can absorb industry-wide module supply. There will be significant inventory build-up & price reductions.
Polysilicon, the main raw material in solar panels, has plunged more than 33 percent in the spot market to $22/lb. during the second quarter, lowering production costs in the $35 billion global market for the photovoltaic devices.
The price for polysilicon, also used in semiconductors, peaked at about $182 a pound during the boom in the Spanish market in 2008 before collapsing. “People are getting rid of stock that’s been on the floor, in some cases actually below cost,” Andrew Lee, head of international sales at Sharp Corp.’s European solar division, said in an interview from Wrexham, Wales.
Profit margins will be squeezed at all polysilicon makers, though it may benefit the newest competitors, such as Hong Kong- based GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Inc. and Korea’s OCI Co., Jefferies’ Xu said in a phone interview from New York.
In recent months the Czech Republic, Germany (moderated growth), France, UK, Italy and Spain have all severely cut subsidies for solar photovoltaic after a boom in projects started to strain public budgets. Europe accounts for 80% of solar demand, the cuts will have a big impact, particularly if the US, China and India don’t pick up demand. The likely result = loads of capacity and few attractive markets. Silicon prices have plummeted. Enter….smart USA cities. Construct a reasonable (read economic) feed in tariff regime and you will light your cities with the sun at a fraction of the cost it ran to illuminate European grids.
Falls in solar panel prices may flatten by 2013-2014, said Steven Chan, president of Suntech America, the North American unit of Chinese panel maker Suntech, who cited studies suggesting widespread grid parity with retail power prices by 2015.
Trina Solar, China's largest solar panel maker by value, was shipping modules at $1.50-1.55 now, down nearly 10 percent from a year ago, and expected prices at $1.40-$1.45 by year-end.
For example Los Angeles County/City
Los Angeles gets 40% of its electricity from coal fired power from Arizona and Utah. Combined, these plants emit nearly 36 million tons of climate-disrupting pollution every year - as much as roughly 6 million cars. These plants are also significant sources of mercury, ozone, and other hazardous air pollutants. In fact, the Navajo Generating Station in Arizona has ranked as high as third in the nation in ozone pollution in recent years.
Enter LA Solar
- Nearly 1.5 million rooftops throughout Los Angeles County could be used as solar power generators.
- On the whole, there’s currently enough potential roof space to create 19,000 MW from rooftop solar.
- The total rooftop solar potential for the city of Los Angeles is over 5,500 MW, which could power the city on most days. (The highest-ever peak in Los Angeles was 6,177.) Of course, the city must have more power capacity than is needed at peak times.
In addition the County could install 19,113 MW over 1.4 million land parcels (parking lots and empty land).
So what would solar capacity cost without subsidies? About $0.16 / kWh v about $0.08 / kWh for conventional. However, the $0.08 kWh is a fiction…it doesn’t include environmental emissions & health costs. If we factor those in then we get – in Los Angeles – to a cost of about $0.12 / kWh. Almost grid parity. With dropping silicon prices and increased efficiencies – we might very well be at grid parity in the next 12 months. Now consider feedstock volatility, for example, natural gas has varied from $3 mmbtu to $17 mmbtu over the trailing decade whereas the price of sunlight has remained a constant zero. I will predict the price of sunlight for the next 20 years will remain zero!
A well-designed Feed-in-Tariff (FIT), 20 year contracts with a fixed price providing 5-7% unlevered return on investment and guaranteed connection to the grid, could create a minimum of 600 MW of solar projects per annum which would provide 3% of Los Angeles city’s energy needs today and in a decade the city would be 30% solar powered. The merit to slow penetration is it allows for deployment of best of breed technology over the investment period.
This investment program would create at least 11,000 jobs.
Next Steps for Los Angeles
LADWP is currently developing a dynamic Local Renewable Energy Program (LREP), also known as a Feed-in Tariff, to encourage renewable energy development within the Los Angeles Basin and to help meet the 33% Renewable Portfolio Standard Goal by 2020. The LREP will allow LADWP to partner with program participants to purchase, through a standard power purchase contract, electricity generated from a participant’s renewable energy plant. These plants will be located within our service territory and connected to our electrical distribution system.
The LREP will be a separate program from the existing the Solar Incentive Program (SIP). The renewable generator under the LREP program will not be able to participate in SIP.
Program Schedule
• March 2011: Conduct workshops to solicit public comments on the principles and design considerations for the program
• June-July 2011: Draft Guidelines and Standard Offer Power Purchase Agreement will be available for public review
Conduct workshops on the Draft Guidelines and Standard Offer Power Purchase Agreement
• August 2011: Present the program to the Board of Water and Power Commissioners for approval
• September 2011: Conduct educational workshops for potential participants to review the program guidelines and the administrative and technical processes
• October 2011: Program launch*
Also if you follow tortoises… UCLA’s Luskin Center reports that rooftop solar in Los Angeles can generate more than five times the output of the desert-destroying 9,500-acre Blythe Solar Millennium project. Save a tortoise!
Luskin Center report: Los Angeles is a Rooftop Solar Hotspot
http://164.67.121.27/files/Downloads/luskincenter/SolarAtlas/LosAngelesSolarAtlas(hi-res).pdf
Companies that might be shorts: WFR, STP and FSLR (margin squeeze as it uses cadmium telluride); to a lesser extent JASO -- of course if they are smart and they are; they will be at the urban workshops pushing for speedy legislation to firm up demand.
A good buy: TSL
Polysilicon, the main raw material in solar panels, has plunged more than 33 percent in the spot market to $22/lb. during the second quarter, lowering production costs in the $35 billion global market for the photovoltaic devices.
The price for polysilicon, also used in semiconductors, peaked at about $182 a pound during the boom in the Spanish market in 2008 before collapsing. “People are getting rid of stock that’s been on the floor, in some cases actually below cost,” Andrew Lee, head of international sales at Sharp Corp.’s European solar division, said in an interview from Wrexham, Wales.
Profit margins will be squeezed at all polysilicon makers, though it may benefit the newest competitors, such as Hong Kong- based GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Inc. and Korea’s OCI Co., Jefferies’ Xu said in a phone interview from New York.
In recent months the Czech Republic, Germany (moderated growth), France, UK, Italy and Spain have all severely cut subsidies for solar photovoltaic after a boom in projects started to strain public budgets. Europe accounts for 80% of solar demand, the cuts will have a big impact, particularly if the US, China and India don’t pick up demand. The likely result = loads of capacity and few attractive markets. Silicon prices have plummeted. Enter….smart USA cities. Construct a reasonable (read economic) feed in tariff regime and you will light your cities with the sun at a fraction of the cost it ran to illuminate European grids.
Falls in solar panel prices may flatten by 2013-2014, said Steven Chan, president of Suntech America, the North American unit of Chinese panel maker Suntech, who cited studies suggesting widespread grid parity with retail power prices by 2015.
Trina Solar, China's largest solar panel maker by value, was shipping modules at $1.50-1.55 now, down nearly 10 percent from a year ago, and expected prices at $1.40-$1.45 by year-end.
For example Los Angeles County/City
Los Angeles gets 40% of its electricity from coal fired power from Arizona and Utah. Combined, these plants emit nearly 36 million tons of climate-disrupting pollution every year - as much as roughly 6 million cars. These plants are also significant sources of mercury, ozone, and other hazardous air pollutants. In fact, the Navajo Generating Station in Arizona has ranked as high as third in the nation in ozone pollution in recent years.
Enter LA Solar
- Nearly 1.5 million rooftops throughout Los Angeles County could be used as solar power generators.
- On the whole, there’s currently enough potential roof space to create 19,000 MW from rooftop solar.
- The total rooftop solar potential for the city of Los Angeles is over 5,500 MW, which could power the city on most days. (The highest-ever peak in Los Angeles was 6,177.) Of course, the city must have more power capacity than is needed at peak times.
In addition the County could install 19,113 MW over 1.4 million land parcels (parking lots and empty land).
So what would solar capacity cost without subsidies? About $0.16 / kWh v about $0.08 / kWh for conventional. However, the $0.08 kWh is a fiction…it doesn’t include environmental emissions & health costs. If we factor those in then we get – in Los Angeles – to a cost of about $0.12 / kWh. Almost grid parity. With dropping silicon prices and increased efficiencies – we might very well be at grid parity in the next 12 months. Now consider feedstock volatility, for example, natural gas has varied from $3 mmbtu to $17 mmbtu over the trailing decade whereas the price of sunlight has remained a constant zero. I will predict the price of sunlight for the next 20 years will remain zero!
A well-designed Feed-in-Tariff (FIT), 20 year contracts with a fixed price providing 5-7% unlevered return on investment and guaranteed connection to the grid, could create a minimum of 600 MW of solar projects per annum which would provide 3% of Los Angeles city’s energy needs today and in a decade the city would be 30% solar powered. The merit to slow penetration is it allows for deployment of best of breed technology over the investment period.
This investment program would create at least 11,000 jobs.
Next Steps for Los Angeles
LADWP is currently developing a dynamic Local Renewable Energy Program (LREP), also known as a Feed-in Tariff, to encourage renewable energy development within the Los Angeles Basin and to help meet the 33% Renewable Portfolio Standard Goal by 2020. The LREP will allow LADWP to partner with program participants to purchase, through a standard power purchase contract, electricity generated from a participant’s renewable energy plant. These plants will be located within our service territory and connected to our electrical distribution system.
The LREP will be a separate program from the existing the Solar Incentive Program (SIP). The renewable generator under the LREP program will not be able to participate in SIP.
Program Schedule
• March 2011: Conduct workshops to solicit public comments on the principles and design considerations for the program
• June-July 2011: Draft Guidelines and Standard Offer Power Purchase Agreement will be available for public review
Conduct workshops on the Draft Guidelines and Standard Offer Power Purchase Agreement
• August 2011: Present the program to the Board of Water and Power Commissioners for approval
• September 2011: Conduct educational workshops for potential participants to review the program guidelines and the administrative and technical processes
• October 2011: Program launch*
Also if you follow tortoises… UCLA’s Luskin Center reports that rooftop solar in Los Angeles can generate more than five times the output of the desert-destroying 9,500-acre Blythe Solar Millennium project. Save a tortoise!
Luskin Center report: Los Angeles is a Rooftop Solar Hotspot
http://164.67.121.27/files/Downloads/luskincenter/SolarAtlas/LosAngelesSolarAtlas(hi-res).pdf
Companies that might be shorts: WFR, STP and FSLR (margin squeeze as it uses cadmium telluride); to a lesser extent JASO -- of course if they are smart and they are; they will be at the urban workshops pushing for speedy legislation to firm up demand.
A good buy: TSL
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