LA Nina make room for Jose!!!

With gas storage tracking at the mid-point of the 5 yr average and an economic recovery varying from sputtering to fluttering, this year’s hurricane season might become interesting. Hopefully avoiding the damage and loss of life we’ve seen in the past but will inevitably contribute to some interruptions in critical energy infrastructure.


It began on 1 June and will end on 30 November with three major meteorological organizations agreeing that the 2011 hurricane season is expected to be unusually active.

Citing such factors as Atlantic Ocean water temperatures, a decreasing La Niña pattern, and even dust blowing in from Africa, AccuWeather, the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project and Weather Services International are all calling for anywhere between 15 – 17 named storms, with three to five becoming major hurricanes.

Led by meteorologist and hurricane forecaster Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s team of hurricane center meteorologists is predicting as many as 15 named tropical storms. Of those, AccuWeather is predicting eight to strengthen into hurricanes, and three of those being ranked as a major hurricane.

Last year’s season ranked as the third most active season on record with a total of 19 named storms, but few of those impacted the U.S. coastline. This year, Pastelok said, things are expected to be different.

“It looks like we’re going to have more impact on the mainland of the U.S. coming up this year compared to last year,” Pastelok said. “We had a lot of storms last year, but not a lot of impact.”

Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project’s Phillip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray are also predicting an unusually active season, including 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and five major storms.

The CSU team also believes the La Niña conditions will cease, allowing storms to more easily hit the United States.

“Because we are predicting an above-average hurricane season in 2011, the probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall is estimated to be above the long-period average. This forecast is based on an extended-range early December statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 58 years of past data,” the CSU report said.

Weather Services International, part of the Weather Channel, had virtually the same hurricane forecast as CSU, calling for 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and five strengthening to the “major” category of three or greater.

Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at the Massachusetts-based forecasting firm, also cited the fact that, much like last year, ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be above normal and wind shear is predicted to be favorable for storm formation.

Crawford agreed that the Gulf Coast will be a likely target, comparing conditions to those that spawned devastating storms in years past.

“The forecast numbers are quite similar to those prior to the 2008 season when hurricanes Dolly, Gustav and Ike impacted Louisiana and Texas,” Crawford noted.

The storm names for the 2011 hurricane season will be:

• Arlene

• Bret

• Cindy

• Don

• Emily

• Franklin

• Gert

• Harvey

• Irene

• Jose

• Katia

• Lee

• Maria

• Nate

• Ophelia

• Philippe

• Rina

• Sean

• Tammy

• Vince

• Whitney

So if you’re a resident of the Gulf Coast plan for the worst – as if you hadn’t been handed that already...

If you’re a trader get your bets on the table.

Given the excitement the planet has given us to date in storms, tsunamis, earthquakes and volcanoes – this might be quite the ride!!!