Sounds like the USA needs a nip & tuck!!! (see TV series for context)

“We’ve gotten inconsistency, hesitancy and unevenness” in U.S. economic growth, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said on 6/7/2011 in a speech in Charlotte, North Carolina. “I’m troubled by what you might describe as a lack of conviction in this economy.”
“Oh Mr. Chairman and Fed. Prez.: It’s called America’s deficit which has surpassed $14 trillion!!!”

What’s holding back the stock market and the economy is lack of sustainable confidence rather than a lack of money. Summer will likely set the stage for fits of starts, stops, falls and start agains markets for the remainder of 2011. Which is likely for the remainder of our children’s lives at the rate our enlightened leadership is managing the purse strings.

And really it stems from the politics of it all v the business fundamentals. If Bernanke said; the economy needs no further stimulus and we’re getting on with debt reduction. And Obama said, we’re out of Afghanistan and Iraq and focusing on our peace time economy. Imagine taking 25% of the military budget ($663.8 bln) and investing it in America v in American defense. What a concept. I mean if it still has to get spent in a military way, how about a war on urban and infrastructure decay? Get the Army Corps of Engineers to build some high speed rails; or lay some dark fiber; or raise a few utility scale solar pv arrays…or how about the Navy & Coast Guard cleaning up the waterways, or sending some officers in to teach English, math, history or physical education to our kids. There are plenty of ways to spend money wisely.

Those calling for a technical default -- which assumes that in short order the Treasury starts paying its coupon again – must recognize that this action would have long-term adverse consequences on rates.

Let’s remember Peru in 2000, which defaulted despite not having any problems making payments. That trick cost 200 bps in borrowing costs.

There are other impacts as well. A technical default could have a similar impact on foreign willingness to hold Treasuries – see Fannie and Freddie effect on GSE holdings by foreigners (they collapsed).

And of course this would hit growth. JPMorgan estimates that we'd see a minimum 1% GDP hit thanks to higher rates and a presumed selloff in equities.

Not to mention the dooms day scenario – a run on the banking system.

It’s not socialism I’m calling for, it’s survivalism. We’re on the wrong course. We need to be re-building our nation not dumbing, contaminating, and squandering it down. Unless the plan is the economic rapture, how about the end of pissingitawayism and let’s get on with the basics of business => cut debt, invest in people & technologically, and increase reliability. Now what would that America look like?

Meanwhile, the stock pick for the day:  WY

On a final note: Let’s avoid the protest chants on the streets of Spain: “no jobs, no houses, no pension, no fear.”

Just get it right!!!

Humala on a shining path forward!!!

Peru’s stocks tumbled the most in two years and dollar bonds fell after former army rebel Ollanta Humala claimed victory in the country’s presidential runoff yesterday and sparked concern that he will seek greater state control of the economy.

I think his election represents a great buying opportunity.  Excluding Mr. Chavez, most of the former populist revolutionaries of the Southern Cone have become quite pragmatic in their maturing years.  Humala is no Chavez; he is more in the camp of Lula de Silva of Brazil.

Humala defended policies that have made Peru the fastest growing Latin American economy over the past decade.  Some investors may be concerned he will raise mining royalties and impose greater state control over natural resources.  My guess is that they should be more worried about England’s treatment of taxes in the North Sea!!!

Peru’s benchmark Lima General Index of stocks sank the most since October 2008, retreating 8.7 percent to 19,378.78 at 9:38 a.m. New York time.  Yields on dollar-denominated bonds due 2037 rose 17 basis points, or 0.17 percentage point, to 5.91 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The cost to protect Peru’s debt from non-payment with credit-default swaps jumped 20 basis points to 168, the highest since April 27, according to data provider CMA in London. The sol weakened 0.3 percent last week to 2.7631 per U.S. dollar.

Peru is the world’s top silver producer, third in copper and zinc and sixth in gold. It has vast oil and gas reserves.

Good stock bets are (not to mention the currency and bond plays):

Southern Copper Corp. (SCCO), Peru’s biggest producer of the metal, fell 8.6 percent in U.S. trading to $31.73.

Hochschild Mining Plc (HOC), a producer of silver in Peru, fell to its lowest in four months in London trading, declining 8.7 percent to 498.8 pence.

Viva Zapata!!!